Facing the critical challenges
UNTETHERED consumption
The world is facing profound environmental crises primarily driven by overconsumption in developed nations. Overconsumption in the world’s richest countries is destroying environments globally (UNICEF). The richest countries consume an average of 10 times more than the poorest countries. The regions experiencing the most rapid population growth are often those most affected by climate change, despite contributing the least to it. These communities are at the forefront of the climate crisis, suffering the consequences of a global issue they did not cause.
Exponential population growth
The world’s population is growing rapidly, adding about 83 million people per year, and expected to reach 10 billion by the 2080’s Kenya’s population is increasing even faster - by 1 million people each year—3,000 people every day—and is projected to reach 100 million by 2050. While the number of children per family has fallen significantly from 8.1 in 1978 to 3.8 in 2024, the population continues to grow due to an increase in the number of families and longer life expectancy. This population growth is characterised by a J-shaped curve, where the larger a population becomes, the faster it grows.
Climate change CRISIS
The bottom 50% of the world’s population contributes only 11.5% of global carbon emissions, yet they are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are facing extreme weather patterns, food and water shortages, and other consequences of a changing climate.
Smaller family sizes can enhance climate resilience by reducing the pressure on households and communities, allowing for better adaptation to climate challenges.
The demographic dividend
The population balance is shifting globally. By 2030, there will be two Africans for every European. Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, is experiencing rapid growth, with the continent’s population expected to reach 2 billion by 2050.
A demographic dividend offers an economic opportunity when a country’s working-age population is larger than its dependent population. However, this can only be realised if Kenya addresses key challenges, including comprehensive sexual health education, reducing fertility rates, and creating employment opportunities. Failure to address these issues risks derailing Kenya’s chance to benefit from this demographic shift.
“Countries with the greatest demographic opportunity for development are those entering a period in which the working-age population has good health, quality education, decent employment and a lower proportion of young dependents…”
“Smaller numbers of children per household generally lead to larger investments per child, more freedom for women to enter the formal workforce and more household savings for old age. When this happens, the national economic payoff can be substantial. This is a ‘demographic dividend.’”
LIMITED Access to family planning
Access to family planning is critical for empowering women and ensuring healthier families. By delaying and planning pregnancies, women can improve their own health, as well as the health of their children. In today’s environmental and economic climate, smaller family sizes provide greater stability and adaptability in the face of uncertainty.
CLIMATE CHANGE and gender inequality
Women and girls in Kenya are disproportionately affected by climate change. Severe weather events such as floods and droughts are not only devastating communities but are also exacerbating gender inequalities.
In regions reliant on farming and herding, unpredictable weather threatens livelihoods, leading families to pull girls from school for early marriage as a means of survival. A typical dowry would be three cows, a sheep, a sack of sugar and some blankets ($1500). Teenage pregnancies are on the rise, with Narok County experiencing a high rate of 28% in 2022, much higher than the national average of 15%.
The lack of comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education and the collapse of traditional safety nets leave girls vulnerable, as parents often have to leave them unsupervised while seeking work.
NATURAL & Cultural biodiversity threatened
For many communities, traditional ways of life were interconnected with water, land, and wildlife. This way of life is now under threat. Land fragmentation, driven by population growth and commercial interests, is dismantling traditional land management systems and ways of life.
Large families in Kenya have traditionally been seen as symbols of wealth, prosperity, and security. Cultural and societal factors still influence family size in many regions, and in some rural areas the average is still 5 children per woman.
Smaller family sizes are a necessary adaptation to climate change and a way to alleviate pressure on natural resources like land, water, and forests.
TRADITIOnaL family sizes
Traditionally, large families in Kenya were seen as symbols of wealth, prosperity, and security. However, as population growth, economic pressures, and climate change take their toll, attitudes towards family size are shifting. The average family size has dropped from over 8 children per woman in the 1980s to 3.8 today, but cultural and societal factors still influence family size in many regions, like Narok, where the average is 5 children per woman.
Smaller family sizes are increasingly seen as a necessary adaptation to climate change and a way to alleviate pressure on natural resources like land, water, and forests.
Population Resources
Discover essential tools, graphics, films and research to help you better understand the relationship between the planetary pressures we face and exponential population growth and untethered consumption! Click below to download the pdf of resources to help you or your organisation start the critical conversations today.